The 1983 NFL Draft class set a standard that stood for decades, with six quarterbacks selected in the first round. Forty-one years later, the 2024 draft matched that mark, with six signal-callers going in the opening round—all within the first 12 picks. Now, as the 2026 college football season approaches, the question emerges: could the 2027 draft break that record?
According to an AFC scouting director who spoke with Yahoo Sports, a seven-QB first round is not a certainty. “Gut feeling, no,” he said. “There’s a lot that has to happen for it to all work out like that. You need six or seven who are close to first-round value. You probably have to have one or two really break out this season.” He also noted the importance of team need: “You also need the teams [needing quarterbacks]. Most teams won’t wait for the draft to get their [quarterback]. It might take 10 or 12 looking to get there because they won’t all get [a veteran QB].”
Another veteran talent evaluator expressed more optimism. “I’ve been saying since 2018 [when there were five first-round quarterbacks] that having seven or eight one day wouldn’t shock me. The talent has to match the need—you need teams up there looking for one—but it’s possible.”
As of now, the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets top the list of teams likely to need a quarterback by 2027. The Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, and Pittsburgh Steelers could also be in the mix. The Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings, who both drafted QBs in 2024, cannot be ruled out, and the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders are longer shots if their starters continue to deal with injuries. History shows that unexpected teams often enter the quarterback market—the Colts never anticipated drafting Andrew Luck in 2012, the Cardinals took Josh Rosen in 2018 and then Kyler Murray first overall the next year, and the Bears selected three first-round quarterbacks in a seven-year span.
“Could it be close? Six might not be crazy by the time we get to April, maybe even seven, I guess,” the AFC director added. “I just don’t think we’re quite there yet.”
Here’s a look at the top quarterback prospects in what appears to be a deep group heading into the 2026 college football season.
The Top Tier
Arch Manning, Texas
If Arch Manning had a different last name, he might be a tougher sell as the odds-on favorite to be the top overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. But it’s not purely about pedigree. The 6-foot-4, 219-pound Manning is a terrific athlete with better raw traits than his uncles Peyton or Eli. He excels as a runner and pressure evader, and can throw from different angles and platforms.
The second half of his 2025 season showed why he could be the top pick. After a clunky start, Manning cleaned up his lower-body mechanics, delivered more on-target throws (even as his receivers dropped some big passes), and made better decisions on when to scramble. He now has a dream offensive cast, including wideout Cam Coleman, a possible top-10 pick. Manning still needs more experience—he has only 15 starts—but he appears to be the clear favorite for the top pick if his trajectory continues.
Dante Moore, Oregon
Dante Moore might have been a first-round pick had he declared for the 2026 draft, with many feeling he would have been a strong candidate for the second overall pick behind Fernando Mendoza. Moore is less physically gifted than Manning but has more experience (20 starts) and might be the better touch passer with more natural accuracy. His intermediate and deep throws grade out well above average, even approaching greatness. His easy release and quiet feet will appeal to NFL quarterback coaches.
However, there are times when Moore caves under pressure. Shaky moments against Penn State, Indiana (both games), and Texas Tech revealed concerns when dealing with pass-rush heat and muddled pockets. Moore’s talent appears strong this season, but there are questions about Oregon’s offensive line, which has only two returning starters and lost three to the NFL this spring.
On the Cusp
Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State
Drew Mestemaker is this year’s fastest riser. He never started a game in high school and was prepared to take the junior college route before being offered a walk-on spot at North Texas. Two years later, he led the FBS in passing yards, and he has now followed his head coach, Eric Morris, to Stillwater with a chance to develop into something special.
The 6-4, 210-pound Mestemaker has a big, loose arm and is willing to throw to all parts of the field. He’ll carry the ball a little low at times but has the zip to thread passes on a line, and he routinely throws receivers open with anticipation. A lot of the Mean Green offensive talent will be following him to OSU, including RB Caleb Hawkins and WRs Wyatt Young and Miles Coleman, giving Mestemaker and Morris an instant comfort level.
Mestemaker remains raw, and he could still add some muscle to a slightly leaner frame, but the tools are all there. One area scout who saw him up close compared him to Ryan Tannehill, even if Mestemaker might not be quite as gifted a runner. This could be a Fernando Mendoza-esque rise for Mestemaker this season. Scouts know plenty about him, just as they did Mendoza at this time a year ago. With a few more questions answered, the sky is the limit. OSU’s press box should be filled with NFL talent evaluators in Week 2, when Oregon and Dante Moore arrive for what should be one of the best QB showdowns of the season.
CJ Carr, Notre Dame
CJ Carr had a terrific redshirt freshman season, showing rare poise for a young player and the ability to push the ball downfield. He’s a polished and natural thrower with respectable athletic traits, and he largely kept the ball out of harm’s way. Some talent evaluators see a high-floor prospect who demonstrated NFL-caliber processing as a freshman. Others view Carr more conservatively, wondering if there’s much upward mobility in his game, as he appears to lack a special athletic trait. Another season of starting should reveal exactly where Carr’s game is.
Notre Dame is a strong team on the whole, but this is not an offense that can match talent, pound-for-pound, with the likes of Ohio State or Texas. Carr was buoyed by one of the strongest run games in college football, but he lost first-round RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, along with two targets, WR Malachi Fields and TE Eli Raridon, who were drafted in Round 3. The Irish offensive line appears to be a strength, but the lack of clear-cut difference-makers at the skill positions will give us a window into how much Carr can elevate an offense.
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
LaNorris Sellers is a great reminder about QB hype: It doesn’t always go the way we expect. One year ago, the 6-4, 245-pound Sellers was being touted as a possible 1.1 pick in the draft, oozing with talent and as physically blessed as they come. Neither of those statements are untrue now. He remains unique and a true dual-threat talent with NFL skills. They’ve just been tempered after a sideways 2025 season with the Gamecocks.
Sellers never quite locked in, struggling with missing layup-type throws, taking bad sacks, and sometimes making life too difficult for himself. Some of his issues can be blamed on a chaotic offensive situation last season, one that the Gamecocks hope will be mitigated with some additions and new coordinator Kendal Briles. If Sellers can get back to the level of playmaking he achieved in 2024 while reducing those mistakes by a tick, there’s a clear path back to the first round.
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
Trinidad Chambliss became one of college football’s best stories last season, replacing an injured Austin Simmons and leading the Rebels to 11 wins in his first 12 starts. He arrived from Ferris State as a relative unknown in Oxford, but Chambliss became a folk hero by season’s end, all the way down to the dramatic playoff loss to Miami. Chambliss was a star in Division II, and his ability to create translated shockingly well in the SEC. He threw only three interceptions in 445 pass attempts, averaged 8.8 yards per attempt, and was a menace with his legs, delivering at least one double-digit-yard run in 11 different games.
Working against Chambliss are his size and age. At just about 6 feet and 208 pounds, he’d be undersized by NFL standards. Chambliss will be 25 years old at draft time and will turn 26 late next preseason. That held a similarly aged Tyler Shough back in the 2025 NFL Draft, where he was selected 50th overall. Chambliss also can get happy feet, and his accuracy will escape him through stretches. There’s no doubt that Ole Miss’ talent and scheme helped him. How Chambliss fares without Lane Kiffin will be revealing, but Chambliss is an intriguing prospect who caught the NFL’s attention last fall and will be on radars again.
Don't Count Them Out
Darian Mensah, Miami
Similar to Carr, Darian Mensah is a high-level passer with average to above-average traits. Good, not great arm. Decent size. Capable athleticism. He doesn’t possess a single physical quality that makes you leap out of your chair, but he’s not deficient in any of those areas, and his impressive feel for the passing game more than compensates.
Mensah is a comfortable, efficient thrower who will spray the ball all over the field, but he’s especially adept at attacking the middle of the field, whether it’s threading passes into tight windows or layering throws over the top. He has a clean release and operates with good rhythm when he’s given time. Mensah also can play fast because he appears to process quickly, although he will throw some passes up for grabs that make you hold your breath. With a terrific surrounding cast at Miami and some softer defenses on the schedule, he should be in line for a big season after leaving Duke for a major NIL package from the Hurricanes. Is it enough to push him into the Day 1 discussion? Perhaps.
Julian Sayin, Ohio State
Julian Sayin is another highly efficient pocket passer with excellent feel, especially for his limited experience. You also can’t understate the pressure he faced last season in the cauldron that is Columbus. They expect a lot out of their quarterbacks there, especially with the receiver and O-line talent the Buckeyes almost always have on hand. Even while he was surrounded by NFL-caliber talent, Sayin operated at a high level far more often than not last season as a redshirt freshman starting for the first time. He finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy balloting and led the Buckeyes to the Big Ten title game and the College Football Playoff.
At 6-1 and 214 pounds, Sayin is average-sized, or a bit below, and his raw arm talent appears closer to good than special. He also offers little utility as a scrambler. But it’s hard to find naturally athletic quarterbacks with poise, so Sayin will have a chance. He’s been named an OSU captain, and more will be expected of him in Year 2, but with elite offensive talent around him, it should be another huge statistical season for Sayin.
Drake Lindsey, Minnesota
Drake Lindsey isn’t yet a first-round prospect, but he has the tools to get there. At 6-5 and 230 pounds, he has the frame you’re looking for. His arm appears strong enough to push the ball vertically with ease, but Lindsey also displays nice touch on his throws, even on the move. NFL teams will like that Lindsey appeared comfortable from both shotgun and under-center snaps, and he has displayed good toughness when standing in the pocket to deliver tough throws. Pressure doesn’t seem to rattle him all that much, and it occasionally brings out the best in him.
Lindsey can take a read-option keeper for positive yards, but he might never be a true running threat in the NFL. His pocket movement can appear a bit clunky at times, and he’ll resort to some off-balance throws. There are some mechanical elements that could be cleaned up. The Iowa and New Mexico games revealed a propensity for attempting risky throws. But there’s a lot to work with here, and with a big season in his second year starting, Lindsey could receive a lot more attention from the NFL.
Wild-Card Candidates
CJ Bailey, NC State
CJ Bailey reminds me a bit of Jayden Daniels, who went from an intriguing, lean-framed quarterback to a top-tier NFL prospect in his final year at LSU. After taking a good step up from 2024 to 2025, Bailey easily could make similar improvements this season and become a fascinating prospect. At nearly 6-6 and 218 pounds, Bailey is a tall, athletically blessed player who is still filling out his body. He’s not as electric a runner as Daniels was, but Bailey is dangerous on designed runs and scrambles, especially in the red zone.
He faced heavy pressure last season, but from about the Notre Dame game on, Bailey appeared to navigate it much better. Unfortunately, he struggled badly in the opener at Virginia, losing an early fumble and throwing an interception in a 34-8 loss. Bailey can make all the throws, and NFL teams will be intrigued with his skills, but so far the sum has not become better than the individual parts.
Sam Leavitt, LSU
Sam Leavitt is an adventurous experience to watch, delivering plenty of head-turning plays but also some head-scratching ones. If he can tone down his hyper-aggressiveness and harness his considerable tools, there might be a first-round case to be made. Landing with Lane Kiffin at LSU is also a likely benefit, with a roster teeming with talent. The key for Kiffin will be to harness Leavitt’s creativity and ability to create magic while also gently reeling him away from his happy feet or the devil-may-care throws Leavitt attempts too often.
Bo Nix and Jaxson Dart are two examples of recent first-round quarterbacks who fine-tuned some of those plays out of their systems, which helped their draft hopes considerably. Is Leavitt more backyard baller or true NFL passer? Some of that could be answered this season. There’s still a debate about how good his arm really is and whether some of these bad habits can be coached out of him, but there aren’t many better creators in college football.
Nico Iamaleava, UCLA
The 6-6, 215-pound Nico Iamaleava possesses elite athleticism and has a whippy, high-velocity arm—arguably one of the better natural throwers in college football. As a thrower, he can drive the ball readily to the intermediate and deep parts of the field, attempting some throws other quarterbacks won’t try. As a runner, Iamaleava ripped off 10 runs of 20-plus yards and kept defenses off-balance. There’s a first-round tool kit in here, no question, with the Penn State and Michigan State tapes as the strongest evidence.
But the product has failed to match the individual parts often, especially after leaving Josh Heupel’s QB-friendly system at Tennessee. Iamaleava will succumb to pressure, take bad sacks, and make ill-fated throws way too often. He’s a first-round athlete with too much fifth-round tape. One big season in Westwood could considerably change his career arc.
Brendan Sorsby
Brendan Sorsby will not play college football this season following his gambling scandal that prevented him from taking a snap at Texas Tech. It’s hard to envision a non-first-round prospect (most scouts issued him Day 2 grades or lower last cycle) suddenly becoming one without playing. But if Sorsby can keep his nose clean, work hard on the side, and perhaps show up raring to go at one of the postseason all-star games, a higher-than-expected draft slot wouldn’t be shocking.
With a thick build, very good toughness, and dual-threat ability, Sorsby has a lot of physical qualities NFL teams are looking for. He can operate off-platform and be effective as a runner. Off-field questions and the interview process will be absolutely crucial for him next winter and spring, but the talent is there.
